By Juan Larrosa, October 5, 2026
We are now in the tenth month of the year, and we are beginning to see several important electoral processes for Mexico and the region develop and reach their final stages.
First, the campaigns for the U.S. midterm elections are entering their final and most competitive phase. During October, we will see an increase in campaign activity and also a more prominent role for Donald Trump, who has decided to become fully involved in the campaign in an effort to boost Republican Party candidates.
So far, polls and various analyses point to several important elements. The first is that Trump and his administration are entering these elections with low approval ratings. This is not particularly unusual in a midterm election, since presidents often lose support during their first years in office. However, Trump’s current numbers are especially low.
The second element is that Democrats have begun to become competitive in places where Republicans have traditionally held important advantages. There are close races even in traditionally conservative states. At the same time, some Republican candidates have sought to distance themselves somewhat from Trump, particularly in areas where his presence can mobilize both his supporters and his opponents.
All of this matters because control of both chambers of Congress is at stake. A change in those majorities could make the final two years of Trump’s administration much more contentious, with greater difficulty in passing legislation and with a Congress capable of blocking or modifying some of his administration’s policies.
The other election we should be watching very closely is Brazil’s. Yesterday, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the opening round of the presidential election, just two points ahead of Lula da Silva. Since neither candidate obtained an absolute majority, they will face each other again in the second round on October 25.
What happens in Brazil will be highly relevant for Latin America. A change in government would further alter the region’s political balance and could leave the Mexican government in a more isolated position among the major Latin American countries that identify with the left.
This would have implications for Mexico, especially at a time when the government is dealing with a complex relationship with the United States. Migration, security, drug trafficking, energy, and economic policy are issues that cannot be understood solely through Mexico’s domestic politics.
Finally, all of this is taking place as Mexico’s electoral calendar has already begun. The federal electoral process started in September, and over the coming months we will see political parties define their candidates and strategies ahead of next summer’s elections.
For that reason, the elections in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico are not isolated processes. They are part of a regional political reconfiguration that will have important consequences in the coming years. For Mexico, this context makes it even more necessary to build domestic political agreements, strengthen state institutions, and develop greater capacity to respond to problems such as insecurity, drug trafficking, and the economy.
This was a production by Juan Larrosa for NTR Radio News. If you would like to read this commentary, visit my blog at triple double u dot juan hyphen larrosa dot com. Until next time.
This text was originally broadcast on NTR Radio News on October 5, 2026, hosted by journalist Sonia Serrano.