{"id":3203,"date":"2026-10-05T09:30:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T15:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/?p=3203"},"modified":"2026-10-05T09:32:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T15:32:14","slug":"an-electoral-autumn-reshaping-the-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/an-electoral-autumn-reshaping-the-region\/","title":{"rendered":"An Electoral Autumn Reshaping the Region"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Juan Larrosa, October 5, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We are now in the tenth month of the year, and we are beginning to see several important electoral processes for Mexico and the region develop and reach their final stages.<\/p>\n<p>First, the campaigns for the U.S. midterm elections are entering their final and most competitive phase. During October, we will see an increase in campaign activity and also a more prominent role for Donald Trump, who has decided to become fully involved in the campaign in an effort to boost Republican Party candidates.<\/p>\n<p>So far, polls and various analyses point to several important elements. The first is that Trump and his administration are entering these elections with low approval ratings. This is not particularly unusual in a midterm election, since presidents often lose support during their first years in office. However, Trump\u2019s current numbers are especially low.<\/p>\n<p>The second element is that Democrats have begun to become competitive in places where Republicans have traditionally held important advantages. There are close races even in traditionally conservative states. At the same time, some Republican candidates have sought to distance themselves somewhat from Trump, particularly in areas where his presence can mobilize both his supporters and his opponents.<\/p>\n<p>All of this matters because control of both chambers of Congress is at stake. A change in those majorities could make the final two years of Trump\u2019s administration much more contentious, with greater difficulty in passing legislation and with a Congress capable of blocking or modifying some of his administration\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n<p>The other election we should be watching very closely is Brazil\u2019s. Yesterday, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro finished first in the opening round of the presidential election, just two points ahead of Lula da Silva. Since neither candidate obtained an absolute majority, they will face each other again in the second round on October 25.<\/p>\n<p>What happens in Brazil will be highly relevant for Latin America. A change in government would further alter the region\u2019s political balance and could leave the Mexican government in a more isolated position among the major Latin American countries that identify with the left.<\/p>\n<p>This would have implications for Mexico, especially at a time when the government is dealing with a complex relationship with the United States. Migration, security, drug trafficking, energy, and economic policy are issues that cannot be understood solely through Mexico\u2019s domestic politics.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, all of this is taking place as Mexico\u2019s electoral calendar has already begun. The federal electoral process started in September, and over the coming months we will see political parties define their candidates and strategies ahead of next summer\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n<p>For that reason, the elections in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico are not isolated processes. They are part of a regional political reconfiguration that will have important consequences in the coming years. For Mexico, this context makes it even more necessary to build domestic political agreements, strengthen state institutions, and develop greater capacity to respond to problems such as insecurity, drug trafficking, and the economy.<\/p>\n<p>This was a production by Juan Larrosa for NTR Radio News. If you would like to read this commentary, visit my blog at triple double u dot juan hyphen larrosa dot com. Until next time.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This text was originally broadcast on NTR Radio News on October 5, 2026, hosted by journalist Sonia Serrano.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p class=\"excerpt\">By Juan Larrosa, October 5, 2026 We are now in the tenth month of the year, and we are beginning to see several important electoral processes for Mexico and the region develop and reach their final stages. First, the campaigns for the U.S. midterm elections are entering their final and most competitive phase. During October, we will see an increase&hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/an-electoral-autumn-reshaping-the-region\/\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[154,153,232],"tags":[603,568,280,441,438,607,215,606,608,455,439,609,180,600,368,497,163,566,604,601,605,602,476],"class_list":["post-3203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-electoral-campaigns-in-mexico","category-political-communication","category-united-states-elections","tag-brazil","tag-comunicacion-politica","tag-democratic-party","tag-donald-trump","tag-drug-trafficking","tag-economic-policy","tag-elections","tag-energy-policy","tag-flavio-bolsonaro","tag-foreign-policy","tag-latin-america","tag-lula-da-silva","tag-mexico-en","tag-midterm-elections","tag-migration","tag-ntr-radio","tag-political-communication","tag-political-polarization","tag-regional-politics","tag-republican-party","tag-security","tag-u-s-congress","tag-united-states","xfolkentry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":821,"url":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/elecciones-en-estados-unidos-comunicacion-politica-y-comunidades-latinas\/","url_meta":{"origin":3203,"position":0},"title":"2016 US Presidential Elections &#038; Latino Communities","author":"Juan S. Larrosa-Fuentes","date":"21 November, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Darren Lilleker, Daniel Jackson, Einar Thorsen y Anastasia Veneti edited a book about the 2016 United States Presidential Elections, with a particular emphasis on media and political communication. In this book, I published the article\u00a0\"A Bilingual Campaign: Clinton\u2019s Latino Political Communication.\" Here you can download the entire book, and here\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Doctoral Dissertation Project&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Doctoral Dissertation Project","link":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/category\/doctoral-dissertation-project-en\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Elections","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1040,"url":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/global-fusion-2017-clintons-latino-outreach-in-the-2016-presidential-election\/","url_meta":{"origin":3203,"position":1},"title":"Global Fusion 2017: Clinton&#8217;s Latino Outreach in the 2016 Presidential Election","author":"Juan S. Larrosa-Fuentes","date":"28 November, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Global Fusion took place during the second weekend of October of 2016, at Ohio University and, as is now a tradition, many Temple doctoral students and faculty participated in this conference. In this occasion, I presented advances of my doctoral dissertation. Building and Tearing Walls Down: Clinton's Latino Outreach in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Doctoral Dissertation Project&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Doctoral Dissertation Project","link":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/category\/doctoral-dissertation-project-en\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Global Fusion 2017","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":483,"url":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/digital-media-power-and-democracy-in-election-campaigns-a-workshop\/","url_meta":{"origin":3203,"position":2},"title":"Digital Media, Power, and Democracy in Election Campaigns: a Workshop","author":"Juan S. Larrosa-Fuentes","date":"30 June, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"This week I will be participating in the workshop \"Digital Media, Power, and Democracy in Election Campaigns\". The workshop is organized by Jennifer Stromer-Galley and Andrew Chadwick, both communication scholars that are specialized in political communication. This event will occur in Washington DC on July 2 and 3. \"Political Deliberation\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":485,"url":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/medios-digitales-poder-y-democracia-en-campanas-electorales\/","url_meta":{"origin":3203,"position":3},"title":"Medios digitales, poder y democracia en campa\u00f1as electorales","author":"Juan S. Larrosa-Fuentes","date":"30 June, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Esta semana estar\u00e9 participando en un taller titulado \"Medios digitales, poder y democracia en campa\u00f1as electorales\", coordinado por Jennifer Stromer-Galley y Andrew Chadwick, dos acad\u00e9micos especializados en comunicaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica, as\u00ed como en otros temas relacionados con la comunicaci\u00f3n. Este taller se llevar\u00e1 a cabo el 2 y 3 de julio\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Comunicaci\u00f3n Pol\u00edtica&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Comunicaci\u00f3n Pol\u00edtica","link":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/category\/comunicacion-politica\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Screen-Shot-2016-05-08-at-11.26.53-AM.png?fit=1200%2C896&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1049,"url":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/global-fusion-2017-clintons-latino-outreach-in-the-2016-presidential-election\/","url_meta":{"origin":3203,"position":4},"title":"Global Fusion 2017: Clinton&#8217;s Latino Outreach in the 2016 Presidential Election","author":"Juan S. Larrosa-Fuentes","date":"28 November, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Cada a\u00f1o, diversas universidades organizan la conferencia Global Fusion, que en 2017 tuvo lugar en la Universidad de Ohio. En esta ocasi\u00f3n tuve la oportunidad de presentar parte de mi investigaci\u00f3n doctoral, la cual es una observaci\u00f3n etnogr\u00e1fica sobre la campa\u00f1a que Hillary Clinton llev\u00f3 a cabo para contactar con\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Comunicaci\u00f3n Pol\u00edtica&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Comunicaci\u00f3n Pol\u00edtica","link":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/category\/comunicacion-politica\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/Global-Fusion.03.jpg?fit=1200%2C635&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":817,"url":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/elecciones-en-estados-unidos-comunicacion-politica-y-comunidades-latinas\/","url_meta":{"origin":3203,"position":5},"title":"Elecciones en Estados Unidos, comunicaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica y comunidades latinas","author":"Juan S. Larrosa-Fuentes","date":"21 November, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Unas semanas antes de que concluyeran las campa\u00f1as electorales en Estados Unidos, Darren Lilleker, Daniel Jackson, Einar Thorsen y Anastasia Veneti, acad\u00e9micos expertos en comunicaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica, abrieron una convocatoria mundial para crear un libro en el que investigadores de todo el mundo pudieran publicar sus primeras impresiones sobre este proceso\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Comunicaci\u00f3n Pol\u00edtica&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Comunicaci\u00f3n Pol\u00edtica","link":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/category\/comunicacion-politica\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Election Analysis 2016: Media, Voters and the Campaign. Early reflections from leading academics","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-20-at-5.18.09-PM.png?fit=849%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Hsnc-PF","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3203"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3203\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3204,"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3203\/revisions\/3204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juan-larrosa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}