By Juan Larrosa (June 1, 2026)<\/p>\n
The Rubicon is an Italian river associated with a millennia-old story. In ancient Rome, Julius Caesar, commander of the army, decided to defy the Senate\u2019s laws, which prohibited an army from crossing that river. Caesar advanced. Before him, there were only two options: win the battle or lose it and risk being tried and executed. Since then, this story has been used in popular political culture to describe the moment when a politician makes a decisive choice from which there is, most likely, no turning back. With her speech this past Sunday, in which she apparently celebrated two years of her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum crossed her Rubicon.<\/p>\n
When she won the election, Sheinbaum amassed an enormous amount of political power. Not even L\u00f3pez Obrador reached the presidency with such a large number of votes. After the electoral contest, there was a long transition between administrations, and it seemed that Sheinbaum would enjoy a comfortable first year to build her government. However, in November 2024, Trump won the U.S. presidency once again. He took office in January, and the period of political comfort came to an end.<\/p>\n
The first year became a nightmare, not only for Mexico but for much of the world, because of tariffs. The U.S. president decided to reshape a significant portion of global trade by imposing discretionary tariffs across the planet. In Mexico\u2019s case, this meant fundamentally rethinking the free trade agreement through which, thirty years earlier, Carlos Salinas de Gortari had promised to transform Mexico into a \u201cFirst World\u201d country. Although U.S. courts have reversed some of Trump\u2019s tariff decisions, the global order has changed.<\/p>\n
The blow to the Mexican government\u2014and to the country as a whole\u2014was severe. In just a few months, the economic structures that had sustained much of the system were shaken. The rules of the game changed while the game itself continued.<\/p>\n
Faced with this storm, Sheinbaum\u2019s strategy was to keep a cool head. She refused to engage directly with Trump or with the statements coming from his administration. She sought negotiations through diplomatic channels. She swallowed more than a few bitter pills and endured political humiliations. The international press took notice because, despite everything, she managed to secure better outcomes for Mexico than the setbacks suffered by others. The trade agreement is still being renegotiated, and its final version appears likely to differ substantially from what was signed in 1994.<\/p>\n
But the story did not end there. In January of this year, the United States illegally entered Venezuela and extracted its president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, a dictator who, it is now claimed, has strong ties to drug trafficking. This was followed by attacks on vessels transporting drugs across the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Trump and his administration unveiled a new regional security policy and declared that their new objective would be to clean up their backyard from the world of drug trafficking. Once again, Sheinbaum responded with a cool head, offering certain concessions, such as the controversial transfer of drug traffickers to the United States without formal extradition proceedings.<\/p>\n
Then came April, when the U.S. government delivered what has so far been its strongest blow, accusing a dozen officials from Sinaloa\u2014including the governor\u2014of collusion with criminal and drug-trafficking organizations. In the Rocha Moya case, many expected another display of restraint and a degree of submission from the Mexican government. But that did not happen. The Constitution and electoral laws were amended to prevent foreign interference. Yesterday, far removed from her usually measured tone, Sheinbaum clenched her jaw and fists and charged forward, directing her message\u2014without naming it explicitly\u2014against the United States.<\/p>\n
The situation is far from simple. On one hand, the intention of the United States to intervene politically in Mexico is clear. On the other hand, the politicians of MORENA in Sinaloa\u2014and others beyond the state\u2014are indefensible.<\/p>\n
Yesterday, at the Monument to the Revolution, Sheinbaum crossed her Rubicon. We will see whether, in crossing her river, she achieves a political masterstroke or whether we are standing at the threshold of a historic crisis unlike anything seen in the modern relationship between the two countries.<\/p>\n
This text was originally presented on Informativo NTR Radio, broadcast on June 1, 2026, and hosted by journalist Sonia Serrano.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"